Fdamage: The Price Gain-Loss Factor — Letting You See Human Economic History and the Future — Published on Amazon KDP
Fdamage: The Price Gain-Loss Factor — Letting You See Human Economic History and the Future
The origin of Fdamage, some random socioeconomic discussions
My reason for writing this booklet was entirely accidental. Just as the birth of the Fdamage concept arose completely from an idea I had by chance.
One day I saw a news report saying that the China Index Academy had released November national housing price data, with a decline of 7.98%. Of course I didn't believe this figure. Mainly because it doesn't match our lived sense of the Chinese economy. Housing prices fell by so little, yet inflation data kept hovering at deflationary levels, and nominal GDP still looked quite good, at around 4-point-something to 5-point-something percent.
So I asked my AI assistant whether there was a way to calculate the real decline in housing prices, given various macro data such as inflation, GDP, and exchange rates.
Coincidentally, I had just seen a news report saying that the Wall Street Journal or some foreign media claimed the RMB exchange rate was undervalued, and the real RMB exchange rate should be around 4.2?
Before that, I suddenly saw an economist from a certain investment bank — a professional contrarian indicator — propose that the RMB should appreciate to enhance its purchasing power, thereby lowering domestic consumer prices, which is equivalent to giving money to the people. I very much agreed with this line of thinking, except that those engaged in foreign trade, as well as consumers and producers in Europe and America, might disagree.
So what range should the real RMB exchange rate be in? Is it 4.2, 7.2, 6.2, 5.2, or 3.2?
So in the end we developed some ideas to revise these algorithms, and ultimately we developed our own price formation mechanism, Fdamage, the price gain-loss factor theory.